Off-plan bulk · 40/60 54 × 1BR · Business Bay Exit-anchor model

Binghatti Skyhall

Business Bay · Dubai · handover ~summer 2027 · 54 × 1BR · 834.95 sqft each · NSA 45 087 sqft · payment 40/60

Off-plan bulk · 54 × 1BR

On ask not interesting — target 80–83M

At 94.5M the flip is negative (−2.5%) and hold gives 7.6% — under the 8% bar. The «discount» is only vs the seller's own registrations (−10%), not vs the ready market. We bid at 80–83M (IRR 12–13%).

Package offer −10% vs seller regs only

AED 94.5M

104.8M seller's registrations · the −10% story

Buyer holds this price

—

reserved
for you

Price position — launches & regs

The ask PSF 2,096 sits at the LOW end of Business Bay launches (2,446–3,139) — but the exit anchor is the READY market: value-tier new handovers trade at ~2,150 psf. That anchor, not the launch comps, decides the deal.

ComponentMedianQtyWorth

Ready value-tier · exit anchor ≈96.9M

Discount — vs seller regs only

−10%

Seller registered at 2,324 psf · offers at 2,096 — a discount to HIS price, while entry is ≈ the ready-market value. No real cushion at ask.

Two valuation bases. Everything rests on the exit anchor: value-tier new handovers ~2,150 psf (Sol Bay 2,206, Sterling 2,270), growing at BB 1BR CAGR +4.5%. Conservative anchor (1,955) shifts every ladder price another −8–10% down.

Asset income — rent

No income until keys (~summer 2027). From handover: 54 × ~105k/yr (Paragon by IGO comp) = 5.67M gross, NET ~5.04M after service charge. Rent is what lifts strategy C over the flip.

NET rent by year · from keys 2027 · flat model AED / year

5.67M gross / yr from keys

−0.63M service charge

5.04M net / yr

Net yield on offer

5.3%

net 5.04M ÷ ask 94.5M — rent starts at handover 2027

Gross · 54 × ~105k (Paragon comp)5.67M

− Service charge−0.63M

NET / yr from keys5.04M

Net yield on 94.5M ask5.3%

Full entry — all costs

Now · 40% down payment37.80M

DLD/oqood 4% + agent 2.1%+5.76M

At handover 2027 · 60%+56.7M

Full entry ≈100.3M AED

Real deal amount

Now: 40% (37.8M) + DLD/oqood & agent (5.76M) = 43.6M invested pre-handover. At keys 2027: +60% (56.7M) → ≈100.3M all-in at ask.

Exit in 3 years — the roadmap

Enter 2026 with 40%, take keys summer 2027 (pay 60%), rent the 54 units for 3 years, sell the pool ~2030. Exit = ready value-tier 2,150 psf × BB CAGR +4.5%/yr − 2.1% costs. Strategy A (flip at keys) is weaker — shown in the scenarios. Click any year — its exit math unfolds below.

Two strategies · one bidding target

06+

Resilience — the stress test

What if it doesn't play out? We check the deal across every combination of the two risk factors: rent growth (0/3/5%) × exit-market yield (6.46/5.96/5.46%). The base case is the centre cell — everything else shows the cushion.

On ask: flip fails, hold falls short of the bar

Flip at keys: IRR ~−2.5% (one year of growth can't cover the ~8% round-trip). Hold + rent 3y: ~7.6% — close but under 8%. Everything rests on the 2,150 psf exit anchor; the conservative anchor (1,955) pushes ladder prices another −8–10% down. Hence the target: 80–83M.

Closing offer