Ask +20% vs breakupFull building · 32 premium unitsCAGR growth model
City Walk
City Walk · Al Wasl (area 364) · Dubai·32 units · 1BR–4BR + Penthouse · NSA 66 018 sqft · avg ~2 063 sqft/unit
Full building · 32 units
Ask above our ceiling — we offer 190M
Location is top and growth is real, but the 220M ask is +20% over breakup and above the best corpus PSF. We bid from data, not from their words: 190M.
Package offer−14% vs the 220M ask
AED 190M
220Masked by the seller · breakup 184M
Buyer holds this price
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reserved for you
02
Breakup — where the ask stands
Sold one by one at premium City Walk medians, the 32 units are worth ≈184M (range 175–198M). The seller asks 220M — +20% ABOVE breakup. «Below market» is marketing; we anchor to data.
ComponentMedianQtyWorth
Worth piece-by-piece≈184M
Ask premium vs breakup
+20%
Breakup 184M · asked 220M — our offer 190M keeps entry near the liquidation anchor.
Two valuation bases. Entry anchored to breakup (184M piece-by-piece). Exit priced by growth: breakup × CAGR³ − 2.1% costs. Seller cost-basis is unverifiable without the corpus number — we negotiate from breakup, not from their words.
03
Asset income — rent
Declared income 12–13M gross (~189 AED/sqft — realistic for premium City Walk). Net ~11.0M after premium Meraas service charge. To verify before closing: net vs gross and the rent roll.
NET rent by year · model +5%AED / year
12.5Mgross / yr (declared)
−1.45Mservice charge
11.0Mnet year 1
Net yield on offer
5.8%
net 11.0M ÷ our offer 190M — 5.0% on the 220M ask
Gross income · ~189 AED/sqft declared12.5M
− Service charge · ~22 psf Meraas premium−1.45M
NET~11.0M
Net yield on breakup 184M6.0%
04
Full entry — all costs
Our offer190.00M
DLD 4% + agent 2.1% + admin (×1.062)+11.8M
Registration & trustee — inside the 6.2%—
Full entry≈201.8M AED
Real deal amount
Our offer 190M × 1.062 (4% DLD, 2.1% agent, admin) = ≈201.8M. This is the base for the IRR; at the 220M ask the full entry would be 233.6M.
06
Exit in 3 years — the roadmap
Enter in 2026 at our 190M offer, collect ~11M net (+5%/yr), sell whole in 2029. Exit = breakup 184M growing at the blended CAGR (base 7%) − 2.1% selling costs. City Walk is hot: 1BR/2BR run +10.7% rolling; large units slowed to +3.2% — hence the conservative 7% blend. Click any year — its exit math unfolds below.
Exit 2029 · three growth scenarios
06+
Resilience — the stress test
What if it doesn't play out? We check the deal across every combination of the two risk factors: rent growth (0/3/5%) × exit-market yield (6.46/5.96/5.46%). The base case is the centre cell — everything else shows the cushion.
Passes at our 190M — not at the 220M ask
At 190M the base (7% CAGR) gives IRR 8.8%; if growth stalls to 3.5% it drops to ~5.4% — the cushion is the entry price, so the ceiling is 194M and the ask 220M is out at any reasonable growth.
Admin onlyWorking block — not shown to investors
Bargaining ladder — target IRR
Closing offer
City Walk — place our 190M offer
The ask is 220M (+20% vs breakup 184M) — out of our zone. Our data-based offer is 190M: IRR ~8.8% base, net yield 5.8%, grounded in breakup + growth. Ceiling 194M.
Offer valid
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Allocated to private clients — this bracket typically closes before year-end.
