Fair price · ≈ breakup Whole building · 51 units Income approach

Dubai South · 51×1BR

Dubai South (area 462) · G+4+R · 8 yrs · 51 units · all 1BR (643–846 sqft) · NSA 40 149 sqft · 2018

Whole building · 51 units

Fair price · we bid at the target

Offer 41M ≈ piece-by-piece breakup 41.4M (−1%) and ≈ income value 42.2M — a fair market price, no liquidation discount. Income-hold gives IRR 5.8%; the deal turns investable only via bargaining to ~34.9M.

Package offer 1% vs piece-by-piece

AED 41.0M

41.4M worth piece-by-piece

Price held for the buyer

—

reserved
for you

Why it's in distress — sum of parts

Sold one by one at district PSF, the 51 units are worth ~41.4M. The whole building is offered for 41M — level with liquidation value. No distress discount — the return has to come from income, which in Dubai South is thin.

ComponentMedianQtyWorth

Worth piece-by-piece 41.4M

Discount captured

−1%

Worth 41.4M · offered for 41.0M — you enter level with the breakup floor, not below it. The edge here is bargaining, not the entry discount.

Two valuation bases. Entry priced by liquidation (41.4M piece-by-piece). Exit priced by income: 2.705M ÷ 6.40% cap = income value 42.2M. Breakup ≈ income ≈ offer — the asset is fairly priced on every base.

Asset income — rent

Rent per sqft (84.7) sits right on the Dubai South market (83.3) — income is real, fully rented, no reversion risk. Seller's "Net 8.23%" was on fake 25k costs; the true service charge (Mollak) is 0.695M/yr, so the real yield is 6.6%, not 8.23%.

NET rent by year · base +3% · fully rented AED / year

3.40M gross / yr

−0.695M service charge

2.705M net year 1

Net yield on offer

6.6%

net 2.705M ÷ offer 41.0M — at market per Ejari

Residential · 51×66.7k (1BR)3.40M

Occupancy · fully rented100%

Gross3.40M

− Service charge (Mollak)−0.695M

Full entry — all costs

Offer price41.00M

DLD transfer 4% + agent 2.1%+2.50M

Trustee + title (51 × 4 450)+0.23M

Full entry 43.73M AED

Actual amount payable

Offer 41.0M + 2.73M costs (4% DLD, 2.1% agent, trustee & title on each of 51 units) = 43.73M. This is the base for the IRR and exit.

Exit in 3 years — the roadmap

Enter in 2026, hold and collect rent, sell whole in 2029 at the market yield (6.90% base = 6.40% today + 0.5% buffer). Key point: exit ≈ entry — with no entry discount and a thin cap, profit comes almost entirely from rent. Click any year — its exit math unfolds below.

Exit 2029 · three market scenarios

06+

Resilience — the stress test

What if it doesn't play out? We check the deal across every combination of the two risk factors: rent growth (0/3/5%) × exit-market yield (6.46/5.96/5.46%). The base case is the centre cell — everything else shows the cushion.

Income-hold fails — 6 of 9 cells below the 8% threshold

The base itself fails (5.8%). Only 3 of 9 cells pass — all need 5% growth or no market dip. On the offer the deal rests on optimism; value comes only via bargaining to ~34.9M (IRR 12%).

Closing offer