Distress −15% · on paperWhole building · 97 unitsIncome approach
JVC Building
Jumeirah Village Circle (JVC) · Dubai·97 units · 20 studio · 46×1BR · 20×2BR · 11×3BR · NSA 95 000 sqft · 12 floors · 1 yr
Whole building · 97 units
On ask it doesn't pass — we bid at the target
Income-hold at the 95M ask gives IRR 6.1% — below the 8% floor. The deal works only via bargaining to ~81.5M (IRR 12%) or a breakup play on the 112M floor.
Package offer15% vs piece-by-piece
AED 95.0M
112Mworth piece-by-piece
Buyer holds this price
—
reserved for you
02
Why it's distress — sum of parts
Sold one by one at district median prices, the 97 units are worth ~112M. The whole building is asked at 95M — 15% below liquidation. Strong on paper, but section 06 shows income doesn't back it.
ComponentMedianQtyWorth
Worth piece-by-piece~112M
Discount captured
−15%
Worth ~112M · asked at 95.0M — but the discount is real only through a piece-by-piece sell-off, not through income hold.
Two valuation bases. Entry priced by liquidation (112M piece-by-piece — the floor). Exit priced by income: value 101.4M. The bases diverge hard — income does NOT support the breakup price. That's the core problem of this deal.
03
Asset income — rent
Current rent 6.5M gross sits ~10% below market (under-rented). Base is the market potential 7.19M gross per Ejari medians — re-signing captures +0.69M/yr.
NET rent by year · base +3% · market potentialAED / year
7.19Mgross potential / yr
−1.37Mservice charge
5.82Mnet year 1
Net yield on offer
6.1%
net potential 5.82M ÷ ask 95.0M — building under-rented −10%
Current rent (fact, under-rented)6.50M
Market potential (gross)7.19M
Re-signing upside+0.69M
− Service charge (Mollak)−1.37M
04
Full entry — all costs
Ask price95.00M
DLD transfer 4% + agent 2.1%+5.80M
Trustee + title (97 × 4 450)+0.43M
Full entry101.23M AED
Real deal amount
Ask 95.0M + 6.23M costs (4% DLD, 2.1% agent, trustee & title on each of 97 units) = 101.23M — already above the income value 101.4M. No cushion at ask.
06
Exit in 3 years — the roadmap
Enter in 2026, re-sign to market, hold and collect rent, sell whole in 2029 at the market yield (6.23% base = 5.73% today + 0.5% buffer). Key problem: exit ≈ entry — cap drift eats the paper discount. Click any year — its exit math unfolds below.
Exit 2029 · three market scenarios
06+
Resilience — the stress test
What if it doesn't play out? We check the deal across every combination of the two risk factors: rent growth (0/3/5%) × exit-market yield (6.46/5.96/5.46%). The base case is the centre cell — everything else shows the cushion.
Income-hold fails — 6 of 9 cells below the 8% threshold
The base itself fails (6.1%). Only 3 of 9 cells pass — all need 5% growth or a market rise. On the ask the deal rests on optimism; value comes only through the breakup floor (112M) or bargaining to ≤81.5M.
Admin onlyWorking block — not shown to investors
Bargaining ladder — target IRR
Closing offer
JVC Building — bid at the target
On the 95M ask income-hold gives 6.1% IRR — we do not buy at ask. Paper distress −15% vs breakup 112M; our bidding target is ~81.5M (IRR 12%).
Offer valid
—
Allocated to private clients — this bracket typically closes before year-end.
